AAP: RIGHT STRATEGY, WRONG INTENT

The election results in the 5 states where polls were held recently threw quite a few surprises. BJP created a history of sorts by grabbing more than 300 seats in UP and also winning the highest tally of seats in the state of Uttrakhand in the history of the hill state. It also opened its account in Manipur for the first time. Congress on the other hand won handsomely in Punjab and also emerged as the single largest party in Goa and Manipur. If there were winners it is but natural that the other side would be occupied by some losers. 

If the wins were spectacular, losses were equally surprising. BSP could only manage 19 seats in UP, its worst tally ever, and third straight defeat after 2012 and 2014. SP's family drama and Akhilesh Yadav's development cry and a so-called masterstroke of aligning with Congress did not convert into votes. Congress is all but finished in UP. However, the most shocking defeat story and the one I am interested in discussing here is the that of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) headed by Mr. Arvind Kejriwal.

Not a single exit poll result was even close to predicting the bad show of AAP in Punjab and Goa, the two states where the party was confident in doing not just well but great. All the exit polls predicted either AAP a close second to Congress or getting an equal number of seats. However, the results surprised everyone. In Punjab AAP came a distant second to Congress with lesser vote share than the third-placed SAD-BJP combine. The nightmare did not end there. The party drew a blank in GOA where it hoped to put up a good show in the view of the crumbling leadership of both BJP and Congress.

Why AAP lost in these two states where it was hopeful of grabbing the power is a different case study altogether. What I would like to share is my understanding of the political game plan of AAP based on which it has been harnessing the dream of becoming a national alternative to BJP and Congress at the center and positioning Arvind Kejriwal as the face against Narendra Modi in 2019.

Since the time of its inception in 2012 when it had the likes of Yogendra Yadav a leading poll analyst and Prashant Bhushan, a supreme court lawyer along with Arvind Kejriwal, AAP had only one agenda. To become an alternative to BJP and Congress. Nothing wrong in that. But what amazed me is the plan they adopted to achieve that target. Through the length and breadth of India, several regional parties have considerable clout in their respective states, and in some states, these parties are much bigger than the two pan India parties. However, none of these parties, even after being in existence for more than 20 years in some cases, have been able to expand beyond their respective states. 

Where these regional parties failed AAP planned to succeed. They adopted a simple but effective strategy of direct conflict with both BJP and Congress. And the plan was not to take on both the bigger parties individually but together. Now, any political observer would think that this would be a political suicide by a newly born political party. But AAP had a clear cut strategy. It never entered into a political battle with Congress and BJP where ever a third alternative was already available. AAP only decided to focus on the states where the electoral fight has always been between BJP and Congress e.g. Delhi, Goa, Gujrat, Karnataka, Punjab (even though the traditional rivals here are SAD and Congress but BJP instead of a third alternative is a partner of SAD).

AAP tested this theory in Delhi, where after 15 years of rule, Congress was fighting an anti-incumbency wave and BJP was embroiled in the leadership struggle at the state level with no credible face to be projected as CM candidate. After the Lokpal movement in Delhi under Anna Hazare, which brought public focus on Arvind Kejriwal, he along with other like-minded leaders decided to form a political party and created AAP. And the strategy they used against both BJP and Congress was that of Hit and Run. The strategy was a bombardment of allegations on both the parties and their leaders irrespective of the fact whether those charges would stick or not. The motive was to keep the public confused and remain in the news. 

People of Delhi who were sick of the corruption scandals of both the UPA government at the center and the Congress government in Delhi wanted a change and BJP was unable to present a face to fulfill their aspirations. So people of Delhi decided to vote for the third alternative which was available to them for the first time, and AAP with their countless allegations against BJP and Congress, made them believe that those parties were pure evil and AAP is the savior. And hence, the AAP government was formed in Delhi.

However, the win in Delhi filled Arvind Kejriwal with a mistaken sense of confidence. And AAP decided to expand its footprint in the states of Punjab and Goa where state elections were scheduled to be held next. In the meantime, Arvind Kejriwal also started to send feelers to the public of Gujrat. AAP also managed to win 4 seats in the union elections held in the year 2014, which further boosted their confidence.

However, the defeats in Punjab and Goa have dealt a severe blow to the aspirations of AAP and its leader. Many factors caused these defeats. The most important is the public image of the party. Since the time of its inception, the image of the party is that of a confrontational one. Even after forming government in Delhi, the party leaders including Arvind Kejriwal, have been more in news for their confrontations with the Government of India and LG of Delhi than their work for the development of the state.

Secondly, the party made the biggest mistake in underestimating the penetration of BJP and Congress in the innermost regions of the above-mentioned states. Both of these parties have developed a network of grass root level workers in the states who run the well-oiled machinery of the parties. AAP without developing the party infrastructure in states like Goa and disregarding the local leaders in Punjab who were working for the development of party structure had no chance of edging out BJP or Congress. 

Thirdly, in the absence of local leadership at the state level, it is very difficult to challenge a political party with an organized leadership structure. AAP won Delhi because BJP lacked a credible face who could challenge both Sheila Dixit and Arvind Kejriwal. And the same handicap caused AAP's defeat in Punjab, as they did not have a Kejriwal for the state.

Fourth, and very importantly, AAP has created its image in the mind of the public as that of a political party that only wants power and based on that wants more power without doing anything for the public that has voted for it. Upon its inception, the enemy number one was Congress, as UPA was in power. However, as soon as Narendra Modi was declared as the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate, and it was clear that UPA would not be retaining the power, AAP's, and Kejriwal's guns were pointed at Modi and BJP and all the scams of Congress were forgotten. Arvind Kejriwal and his party are always in the fight mode with the party in power at the Center. Because of this, it became clear to the public of India that his sole ambition is the chair of PM of India and he doesn't care about the promises that he made to the people of states he went to ask for votes.

All these reasons have caused AAP to lose the credibility it once had as a party which could challenge BJP and Congress. And we need to remember that all of this has happened in the first five years since its formation. The strategy of posing itself as the third alternative was a good one. In most of the states which shuffle between BJP and Congress every 5 years, a third alternative that is clean, corruption-free, and wants to work for the development of the state without any hidden agenda would be welcome. But I can say, for now, AAP has lost the chance to become that alternative because the strategy was in place but the intent was missing.