Ever since the results for 2014 union elections were announced in India and Narendra Modi stormed to power in Delhi with an absolute majority, thanks to a large extent to a near clean sweep in the state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), BJP has been trying to wrest the state from the hands of Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) for a dual benefit of increasing its telly in Rajya Sabha considerably and to ensure that it has the best chance of getting back in power in 2019 Union Elections. Now that the Election Commission of India has announced the dates for elections in Up along with Uttrakhand, Manipur, Goa and Punjab, there has been a sudden surge in the political antics of all the parties to woo the voters.
Today I am going to only talk about UP. Being the biggest state in terms of the Assembly seats and being the hub of political power in India ever since independence, this state deserves special status. Moreover, after a long time voters of the state are going to witness a three way fight. For the past few elections there has always bee a fight between SP and BSP with both parties taking turns to form the government in the state and there by playing the king maker in the center. But with the unprecedented success of BJP in the 2014 union elections, the party and its workers have received a fresh impetus and energy to believe in its power to attracts the voters in the state once again. Although the war for the votes in UP will also witness Indian National Congress as a fourth player, its impact would be negligible unless it is able to form an alliance with either SP or BSP.
So let us try and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the major players in the game of elections in the state of UP and see if we are able to predict a winner in this battle for holding the bragging rights in the future.
1. INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (INC)
After the debacle of 2014 when Congress was reduced to its lowest ever tally in the lower house of the parliament, the party hasn't been able to recover from the shock. Loosing elections after elections in the consecutive state elections and getting reduced to the role of minor partner to the regional parties in many states has dealt a severe blow to the confidence of the leadership and grass root workers of the party. Although it cannot be denied that INC played a significant role in stitching a grand alliance with bitter rivals Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar in Bihar to defeat BJP, but even there it played the role of a junior partner.
Now if we talk about UP, Congress after initially trying and having failed in stitching a Bihar style alliance in UP to stall BJP, decided to go alone in the state and projected ex-Delhi CM Ms. Shiela Dixit as the Chief Ministerial candidate. Party also decided to seek the services of Prashant Kishore, the architect of Modi's 2014 election strategy and Nitish Kumar's Bihar victory. However, even then no one is willing to give them a real chance to form the next government in the state on their own. The most important reason for this is the recently acquired image of a spent force for the party. A non-charismatic leader in Rahul Gandhi and no significant wins in any big states in the last 3 years dents the confidence of political pundits and public in the party. Moreover, Ms. Dixit having spent most of her political carrier in Delhi is relatively unknown face in UP. All these factors combine to render INC as a non-entity if fighting the elections alone.
However, if somehow, which now seems to be a possibility, INC is able to stitch an alliance with SP under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav, then there is a chance of fortune turning for better for them. Being in an alliance gives the Congress party an advantage in the form of being required to focus on lesser number of seats and not having to think about the leadership bankruptcy in the party. Fighting under the leadership of Akhilesh has dual benefits, one, if the elections are won Congress's image as the binding agent for a grand alliance against BJP in 2019 would be cemented and that would again make it relevant in the political scenario of the country. Second, in case the alliance is defeated, the blame would lie with Akhilesh and Congress leadership would escape the burden of another defeat at the hands of BJP.
2. BAHUJAN SAMAJ PARTY (BSP)
BSP is the party everyone was placing their bets on to win the UP elections in 2017. Being the only other party apart from SP to have a strong and united vote bank in the state, the anti-incumbency wave against SP was sure to help Mayawati to grab power in UP. Having a better track record as the CM in terms of law and order in the state, gave her an advantage over other parties. However, with the sudden Phoenix like rise of BJP in the 2014 union elections and with Modi-Amit Shah duo eyeing the traditional vote bank of BSP i.e. the backward classes and somewhat succeeding in penetrating the BSP fortress has changed the equations for Mayawati's party. With her traditional support eroding from under her feet it was imperative for Mayawati to look for alternate options. And she did that. In fact she is now trying to create a new formula for the success in the state i.e. the Muslim-Dalit vote bank. In the last elections she won she combined the Bhramin-Dalit votebank. But with BJP again getting a life back in UP, its traditional vote bank of upper class hindus are more likely to support it, hence Mayawati has decided to infiltrate the SP's traditional vote bank. If she is able to succeed in her tryst to get the muslims of the state to vote for her and is able to keep her dalit vote bank intact, she would be the prime contender to the chair of Chief Minister of the state. However, with BJP aggressively making inroads in to the dalit vote bank and Modi remodeling his image as pro-poor and pro-dalit leader, it would be very difficult for Mayawati to keep her vote bank intact.
3. SAMAJWADI PARTY (SP)
Having ruled the state for the last five years with an absolute majority, SP does not have much to show in terms of development of the state. Hurried infrastructure projects in the last one year of the rule would not absolve the party of the poor image it has created for itself in terms of law and order in the state and no developmental work in the first three and a half years of the tenure. Campaigning aggressively for the party in the last assembly elections, Akhilesh Yadav emerged as a dynamic young leader of the party and SP created a better image for itself when Mulayam Singh Yadav appointed Akhilesh as the CM of the state after winning elections. Much was expected of the young leader. However, multiple power centers in the government and the party dented his image as a powerless CM. It was said that there are 5 CMs in the state, with Akhilesh Yadav being the least powerful one. The deteriorating law and order in the state combined with no development work and multiple power centers took a toll on the party and it could only manage to win 5 seats from the state in the 2014 Union elections. The chances of party coming back to power looked grim.
However, in the last few months there has been a major change in the political atmosphere of the SP. The party it seems has been divided into two factions with Mulayam Singh Yadav siding with his brother Shivpal Yadav on one side and Akhilesh Yadav being supported by his uncle Raj Gopal Yadav on the other side. If one is to look at this family tussle from the outside, it would look like a fight between two ideologies, with Mulayam faction trying to go for the caste equations in the upcoming elections and Akhilesh Yadav clamoring for development as the pool plank. But only if one looks closely and tries to read between the lines, one would see that this family feud is nothing but a drama to project Akhilesh as a pro-development leader who would put development and clean politics above his relations and political carrier but at the same time never uttering a word against his father who is always for the caste and class based politics and is not hesitant to shake hands with criminals for political gains. Neither Mulayam nor Akhilesh has taken any decisive action in this entire feud. Leaders have been thrown out of the Party and the government only to be taken back. Both the sides have been giving sensational statements on a daily basis but not concrete action has been taken. All this seems to be a big Public Relations exercise to boost the image of Akhilesh as a clean and pro-development young leader.
If this strategy works for SP and on top of this if it joins hands with Congress to come to a seat sharing compromise than SP will be a force to recon with in the upcoming elections. With the clean image of Akhilesh and back room caste and religion based politics of Mulayam Singh Yadav, it will be a big advantage for SP in the UP elections.
4. BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY (BJP)
BJP is the only party without a Chief Ministerial face in the UP elections. The party is fighting the elections on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image.He is the star campaigner for the party, in fact it would not be totally wrong if I say that he is their only campaigner in the state. No other name is heard in the campaign. The entire elections is being fought on the basis of work done by Modi at the Center. And since BJP is aware of this fact and buoyed by their unprecedented victory in the 2014 union elections, and at the same time realizing the importance of winning UP, BJP is leaving no stone unearthed to ensure a victory in the upcoming elections. BJP seems to have learned partially from its mistakes in the Bihar assembly elections where it took a beating because the opposition was able to draw BJP government's image as anti-poor. (I will discuss my use if Partial understanding later.) Since then the government has been working hard to create Modi's image as pro-poor and pro-dalits. Repeated use of Dr. B R Ambedkar's name in the speeches of PM and references of his work is specifically designed to lure dalits of the state towards BJP.
However, the biggest gamble taken by BJP, which can eithr make or break its chances of coming to power in UP is the announcement of Demonetization of 1000 and 500 currency notes on November 8, 2016, just 3 months ahead of the elections in the state. On one side where this decision forced the common public of country to leave all the work and stand in the long queues to deposit the demonetized currency notes in the banks or to withdraw new currency to cater to their daily needs, thereby sparking some outrage against the action, on the other side there was a wholesome support for this move from the poor and middle income population of the country who believed that this move would force the black money hoarders to come out in open and deposit that money with the banks and ultimately that money would come to them through development schemes of the government. Another motive of this move was to rid the rival political parties of black money to use in the elections to purchase votes. Now what needs to be seen is whether this masterstroke of Modi would turn into votes to it will put an end to his ambition of a second term in 2019.
BJP is not totally dependent on big ticket reforms or announcements to get votes in the elections. The party is investing big time in wooing its traditional core vote bank i.e. the upper castes along with dalit vote bank by projecting Modi as a new age dalit icon. In this struggle to attract the dalits towards the party, many dalit leaders have been given high posts in the state party leadership. This pitches the BJP in direct confrontation with BSP whose traditional Core Vote Bank has been Dalits. It will now all depend upon Amit Shah's political acumen and his understanding of the caste equation in the state to determine the fate of BJP in this election. A major force that would help the BJP in its efforts to clinch UP from SP and BSP is the RSS and its cadre. With its reach in each and every corner of the state, RSS can be a deciding factor in swinging votes in favour of BJP.
Now lets come back to the point where I said that BJP has only partially learned from its mistakes in the Bihar. The only area where BJP lost ground to Grand Alliance in Bihar and where it has a disadvantage in UP is absence of popular local leadership. BJP has no leader in the state who could be projected as the CM candidate in front of the public. BJP and most importantly Modi-Amit Shah combination have to understand that state elections cannot be won with central leadership. If they are trying to draw comparisons with Maharashtra and Haryana then it has to be understood that those elections were held close to the heels of Modi's victory in the general elections when his popularity was at its peak. Modi may still be the most popular leader in the country but with time the popularity wanes and that a strong state leadership acts as a boost. In order to ensure that BJP doesn't ends up like Congress, it should start developing leadership at the state level.
After looking at all the major players in the UP, it looks like it will be tightly contested election. With every party employing new and untested equations only time will tell who comes out with a perfect blend to woo voters and who comes out on top. Will it be Akhilesh's pro development image, Mayawati's strategy of combining Muslims and Dalits, or Narendra Modi's hard selling of development for all combined with upliftment of poor strategy. Lets see who changes the course of history and becomes the face of India's future.
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